Author: VellumBlogs

From Starlink to Killer Satellites: The Future of Space as a Battlefield.
I. Why Space is the Next Battlefield

In the 20th century, wars were fought over land, sea, and air. In the 21st century, the fifth domain of warfare—space—has emerged as the ultimate strategic high ground.

Whoever controls Earth’s orbit controls global communications, missile defence, intelligence gathering, and even economic stability.

Satellites are the nervous system of modern militaries:
- GPS-guided missile strikes
- Intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR)
- Encrypted communications between field units
- Early-warning detection for nuclear launches
Destroy these satellites, and you can blind, confuse, and cripple an enemy before the first shot is fired on Earth.

II. The Main Players in Space Militarization

United States
- US Space Force was formed in 2019 to consolidate orbital defences
- X-37B Spaceplane: Reusable, autonomous, and potentially able to deploy small payloads or intercept satellites
- Satellite constellations like Starlink are now integrated into defence planning (Ukraine war proved its military relevance)
China
- Shijian-17 satellite with robotic arm capable of grabbing other satellites
- DF-21D ASAT missile program for direct satellite destruction
- Expanding BeiDou navigation system as an alternative to GPS
Russia
- Pioneer in co-orbital ASAT weapons since the Cold War
- Suspected of testing “nesting” satellites that can release smaller killer satellites
- Blending cyber warfare with space attacks (e.g., Viasat hack in early Ukraine war)
India
- 2019 “Mission Shakti” ASAT test proved capability to shoot down satellites
- Dual-use civilian and military space program with rapid tech growth
III. How Space Can Be Weaponized

1. Direct-Ascent Anti-Satellite Weapons (DA-ASAT)
- Ground-launched missiles destroy satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO)
- Downside: Creates dangerous orbital debris
2. Co-Orbital Killers
- Satellites placed near enemy satellites, capable of disabling or “bumping” them
- Can be disguised as repair or inspection satellites
3. Cyber and Signal Warfare
- Hacking ground stations or intercepting satellite communications
- Jamming GPS signals over battlefields
4. Orbital Energy Weapons
- It is theoretical, but potential for lasers or kinetic projectiles deployed from orbit (“Rods from God” concept)
IV. The Strategic Risks of Space War
- Kessler Syndrome: A chain reaction of debris collisions could make low Earth orbit unusable for decades
- Civilian Dependency: GPS, weather forecasts, global internet all rely on satellites
- Escalation Risk: Attacking space assets could trigger immediate nuclear alert status in some nations
V. Strategic Recommendations for Nations
1. Satellite Resilience & Redundancy
  - Deploy constellation swarms of small satellites (harder to destroy all)
  - Rapid launch capabilities for replacements (SpaceX model)
2. Hardened Ground Infrastructure
  - Secure satellite control stations against cyber intrusions
  - Backup terrestrial navigation systems
3. Space Domain Awareness (SDA)
  - Build AI systems to track, classify, and predict satellite maneuvers in real time
4. International “Space Rules of Engagement”
  - Create treaties defining thresholds for hostile action in orbit (similar to naval law of the sea)
VI. The Future: From Defense to Domination

By the 2030s, we could see:
- Orbital military outposts servicing small fleets of defensive drones
- Space-based missile shields covering entire continents
- Commercial space companies becoming de facto military contractors
In the words of military planners, space is “the ultimate high ground”—and history shows that whoever holds the high ground dictates the terms of battle.
08/14/2025

Turkey: The Third Gulf Axis Of Power

Turkey Is Modernizing Its Military to Send Message to the Rest of NATO - Business Insider

I. Historical & Strategic Context

Turkey has long viewed itself as a bridge between Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia, but in recent years, it has evolved into a military-industrial powerhouse with global reach. No longer a passive NATO border state, Turkey under Erdoğan is increasingly projecting influence:

North Africa (Libya)
The Caucasus (Azerbaijan-Armenia war)
Levant and Gulf (Qatar, Iraq, Syria)
East Africa (Somalia, Red Sea bases)

Strategic Shift: From reactive defense to neo-Ottoman influence projection, blending soft and hard power.

II. Defense Industry as a Foreign Policy Weapon

Turkey is one of the world’s top 10 arms exporters—a remarkable shift over the past decade. Key defense assets include:

Bayraktar TB2 & Akinci Drones

Used in Libya, Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Ukraine with lethal efficiency
Proven value: Affordable, modular, and swarm-capable
Exported to over 30 countries

Domestic Naval Power

ANALYSIS] TCG Anadolu: the most powerful warship and the flagship of the Turkish Navy - Turkish Minute — TCG Anadolu

TCG Anadolu: Turkey’s first aircraft carrier (drone carrier)
Development of homegrown submarines, corvettes, and missile boats
Naval projection into Red Sea and Gulf waters via bases in Qatar and Somalia

Roketsan & ASELSAN Weapon Systems

Indigenous missile tech (SOM cruise missiles, surface-to-air platforms)
Electronic warfare, SIGINT, and AI-based C4ISR platforms

III. Turkey’s Military Footprint in the Gulf & Red Sea

Qatar: The Core Gulf Ally

New military base in Qatar to inaugurate in autumn - Türkiye News

Permanent Turkish base in Qatar (Tariq bin Ziyad Base) since the 2017 Gulf blockade
Trains Qatari military officers and provides a counterbalance to Saudi-UAE axis
Shared interests in Islamic soft power and Muslim Brotherhood-aligned networks

Somalia & Horn of Africa

Camp TURKSOM: Largest Turkish overseas base, training Somali forces
Gateway to Red Sea, Indian Ocean routes, and Gulf of Aden chokepoints
Turkey is viewed by local governments as an alternative to Western and Chinese influence

Levant & Iraq

Deep involvement in northern Iraq operations (anti-PKK) and northern Syria
Construction of semi-permanent military zones near Mosul and Afrin
Facilitates indirect influence over Kurdish and Shia corridors leading into Iran and the Gulf

IV. Strategic Military Doctrine: Asymmetric, Exportable, Agile

Turkey’s emerging doctrine can be summarized as “Agile Strategic Presence”:

Exportable Firepower: Drones, missiles, and electronic systems designed for “plug-and-play” use by allies and proxies
Hybrid Warfare: Combines conventional operations with proxies (e.g., Syrian militias), drones, cyber ops, and psychological warfare
Strategic Basing: Establishing forward bases without requiring full occupation—training partners, guarding ports, building schools and airfields

V. Strategic Recommendations: How Turkey Can Solidify Gulf Influence

Expand Naval Presence into Western Gulf
- Leverage Qatar to co-develop naval facilities
- Introduce drone naval platforms in Hormuz-Red Sea corridor
Create a Turkish-Gulf Defense Education Exchange
- Offer military academies in Africa and Asia under Turkish branding
- Counterbalance Western training programs with Islamic-friendly curriculum
Cyber-Islamic Coalition
- Build digital alliances with Muslim-majority countries (Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan) using shared AI, cyberdefense, and drone doctrine
- Present this as a “non-aligned Islamic defense bloc”
Weaponize Infrastructure
- Package military presence with hospitals, mosques, infrastructure deals
- Lock in multi-domain loyalty among unstable regimes (Sudan, Djibouti, Libya)

Table comparison with UAE & Saudi Arabia

Dimension	Turkey	UAE	Saudi Arabia
Military Doctrine	Agile & Hybrid Warfare	Tech-first asymmetric deterrence	Strategic autonomy, conventional
Regional Ally	Qatar, Somalia	Egypt, Jordan, Israel (informal)	Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan
Defense Industry	Drones, missiles, naval	Drones, EW, AI weapons	Land vehicles, missiles, MRO
Influence Method	Proxy warfare + soft power	Tech diplomacy + training	Arms deals + economic leverage

Sidenote: Hi guys, im trying my best to pump out the content. Life has been hectic lately.

08/13/2025

The Gulf Ascendant: How the UAE and Saudi Arabia Are Building the Middle East’s Most Advanced Militaries
The UAE and Saudi Arabia are transforming from traditional petro-monarchies into digitally networked, defense-forward states with long-term military ambitions. Their modernization is not just about defense — it’s about regional leadership, autonomy from Western dependency, and influence projection.

I. From Client States to Military Innovators

Traditionally reliant on U.S. and European military guarantees, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now pursuing a doctrine of self-sufficiency and defense industrialization, motivated by:
- Iranian proxy threats (Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon)
- Western ambivalence post-Afghanistan
- Need to control key choke points: Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb, Red Sea
The Strategic Shift: From defence importers to regional exporters of military influence and tech.

II. UAE: The Laboratory of Future Warfare

The United Arab Emirates is rapidly becoming the Israel of the Gulf—a small, tech-savvy state with asymmetric military power.

Key initiatives:

1. EDGE Group and Defence Startups
- Consolidated over 25 military companies into one umbrella group (EDGE).
- Focus areas:
  - Autonomous systems (e.g., REACH-S, swarming drones)
  - AI battlefield software
  - Electronic warfare tools
  - Smart munitions (designed for extreme desert combat)
2. Global Influence Through Tech Diplomacy
- UAE is selling drones and EW systems to countries like Algeria, Egypt, and even Indonesia.
- Training programs for African and Southeast Asian forces, leveraging soft power.
🔹 Key Doctrine: Agile Deterrence
- Lightweight, mobile forces supported by drones, cyber, and mercenaries (notably via connections with Wagner-linked contractors).
- Focus on speed, intelligence, and deniability rather than large force footprints.
III. Saudi Arabia: From Oil Wealth to Defense Sovereignty

Saudi Arabia is undergoing its largest-ever military reform under the Vision 2030 plan. The goal: 50% of all defense spending to be local by 2030.

🔹 The Rise of SAMI (Saudi Arabian Military Industries)
- Partnering with global defense giants (Lockheed Martin, Rheinmetall, Thales)
- Manufacturing:
  - Ballistic missile defense systems
  - Land vehicles (Al-Fahd armored cars)
  - Long-range UAVs
- Establishing local drone design capabilities and guided missile production lines
🔹 Strategic Military Infrastructure
- Building naval bases on both Red Sea and Arabian Gulf
- Expanding missile and UAV storage silos near key oil and desalination infrastructure
- Acquiring THAAD and Patriot batteries while working on local missile defense layers
🔹 Key Doctrine: Strategic Autonomy
- Less reliance on U.S. basing, more focus on regional coalitions (GCC+, Red Sea Pact)
- Shadow warfare against Iranian proxies across Yemen, Syria, and Iraq
- Joint military exercises with China, Pakistan, and Egypt to diversify partnerships
IV. Common Gulf Trends to Watch

Drone Warfare Doctrine
- Use of AI-coordinated drone swarms for urban and desert warfare
- Counter-drone technology (SkyKnight, EW towers, AI-based targeting)
Cyber & AI Integration
- UAE’s Cyber Defense Council and Saudi’s SDAIA working on military-grade threat analysis
- Integration of biometric, SIGINT, and OSINT into real-time battlefield data feeds
Privatized and Hybrid Warfare
- Increasing reliance on PMCs and foreign advisors (e.g., South African, Colombian mercenaries)
- Covert ops capacity enhanced by private funding and plausible deniability
V. Strategic Recommendations: How UAE & Saudi Arabia Can Optimize Further
1. Gulf Military Cloud Infrastructure
  - Invest in sovereign battlefield cloud infrastructure to fuse satellite, drone, and cyber data into a single AI platform.
  - Reduce lag and increase predictive strike capabilities.
2. Localized War Gaming Facilities
  - Build combined arms simulation environments for drone vs drone warfare, AI decision trees, and swarm tactics.
3. Soft Power through Security Exports
  - Position military exports as a tool of foreign policy.
  - Build Gulf-funded defense academies in Africa & Southeast Asia.
4. Space-Based Early Warning
  - Invest in Lagrange point satellite coverage to gain early-warning edge over Iranian missile launches and regional conflicts.
07/14/2025
France Boosts Defense Spending: Key Priorities for 2025
KNDS Group arms expo.

Hello everyone, a buying trend is starting in Europe. Many countries are spending more into defence and arms in response to the Russian-Ukraine war.

France has placed a record defence budget of €47.2 billion for 2025 alone. With its goals to exceed 2% of its GDP to align with NATO commitments France has spending priorities which I will touch on.

🇫🇷 Spending Priorities
1. Modernize the nuclear deterrent (air and submarine-based)
2. Replenish munitions & stocks (lacking after Ukraine lessons)
3. Upgrade armoured forces (Scorpion program)
4. Expand drone, cyber, and space capabilities
5. Strengthen overseas deployments (esp. in the Indo-Pacific)
France’s “Force de frappe ” (‘Strike Force’)remains the backbone of national sovereignty.
- Maintaining an independent nuclear deterrent is non-negotiable in French 🇫🇷 grand strategy.
- Spending priorities include:
  - Upgrading M51 SLBM missiles on its four Triomphant-class SSBNs (submarines)
  - Modernizing the ASMPA-R nuclear air-launched missile carried by Rafales
  - Sustaining the dedicated infrastructure at the Île Longue nuclear submarine base
  - Research on next-generation nuclear warheads
Cold War Era kit replacement

France is replacing Cold War–era kit with next-generation assets:

🦂 SCORPION Program (Army)
- Replaces old VAB armored vehicles with Griffon, Jaguar, Serval
- Integrated with SICS (Scorpion combat info system) for networked warfare
- Boosts mobility, survivability, and sensor-to-shooter speed
MBTs & Artillery
- Refurbishing Leclerc tanks
- Investing in the next-generation MGCS tank with Germany (though facing delays)
- New Caesar 6×6 and 8×8 self-propelled artillery upgrades
Precision Munitions
- Stocks of AASM Hammer bombs
- Meteor air-to-air missiles
- MMP (medium-range anti-tank missile)
- Large munitions stockpiles after seeing Ukraine’s burn rates
🌍 Overseas Posture & Infrastructure

France has permanent forces in:
- French Polynesia
- New Caledonia
- Djibouti
- French Guiana
- UAE (Abu Dhabi airbase)
Spending priorities include:
1. Modernising these outposts
2. Prepositioned stocks
3. Hardened airfields
4. Satellite comms for global force projection
→ This is part of France’s ambition to be a global (not just European) military power.

🏛️ Strategic Summary

France’s spending priorities reflect:

A) A nuclear-armed sovereign deterrent (cannot rely on the U.S. alone)
B) High-intensity peer conflict preparedness (no more purely counterinsurgency kit)
C) Expeditionary reach (Indo-Pacific, Africa)
D) Resilience (stockpiles, industrial base)
E) Technology edge (cyber, drones, precision weapons, AI)
07/14/2025
Navigating Germany’s Ammunition Crisis and Defense Goals

A ceremony involving the Bundeswehr

Germany is currently facing issues in force generation. With a goal of having 203,000 active troops by 2031, it is possible that they achieve that target.

Current active troops as of 31st March 2025 of 182,000 troops means that they have to draw upon another 21,000 troops in a span of 6 years.

Taking into consideration troops that resign or retire, incentives to recruit more from the younger population are being observed.

Defence Spending Skyrockets

Panzerhaubitze 2000 firing

Germany has announced a €100 billion fund to raise its defence spending to 2% of its GDP. It raises the question on whether the country is able to solve its own internal problems.

Germany currently faces procurement paralysis, industrial underinvestment and energy challenges. Ammo such as high-explosive artillery shells are in short supply due to the Ukraine war.

I will put more focus on its ammunition shortfall as it sums up all the issues that Germany faces.

The country had supplied Ukraine with tons of ammo resulting in a reserve of only 20,00 shells. With a plan to implement €21.4 billion into its ammo reserves by 2031, Germany aims to solve its weak supply chains.

Ukraine Artillery Pieces

Germany imports most of its ammo from China which is unreliable in event of a war breaking out. Shipping times will cause delays and in a time where speed is what decides who wins, it is important to close up the gap.

Focus on investing in its domestic production is underway. With companies like Rheinmetall, expanding its factories. Facing rare earth and explosive components shortages, expanding is difficult.

Gen-Z refusing to fight?

Germany has a birth rate issue. With 1.35 children per woman in 2023, not many are willing to pick up a weapon. Competition is fierce with civilian labor markets.

There is a saying from WW2, “Every Soldier requires 7 in logistics”. Having a necessary workforce to support 203,000 troops will be a challenge.

Germany also faces a barracks capacity problem. Having a bunch of soldiers is useless if there is no place for them to sleep.

I would not be surprised if Germany were to bring back conscription to boost numbers with enough support.

To sum up the potential,

If Germany can restructure it has :
1. a solid industrial base,
2. vast financial resources,
3. strong alliances,
— and can recover its defence strength within 5–7 years, especially in combined NATO frameworks.

Time will tell if Germany can build the necessary support systems to field an active army of 203,000 troops in these uncertain times.

Blog Talk

Hi guys, this is my fourth blog post since starting, I am getting the hang of it, will improve more as i pump out the content. Il probably delve into military intelligence next or whatever comes up in these turbulent times.

If anyone wants to reach out to connect feel free to contact me 🙂

Disclaimer Time!: I am not a professional, all my writings are my own personal opinion. Nothing I say should be taken as financial advice.

06/30/2025
How Drones Are Revolutionizing Combat Strategies
With reference to my previous blog on the Iron Dome system, I would like to delve into the ever-changing landscape of warfare with the introduction of laser systems, drones and the impact of them into defence systems infrastructure.

Laser Systems – Cost effective Defences?

The main advantage of laser systems over traditional missile defence systems are mainly in cost per firing. Having a low cost per firing at US$2 – US$10 versus a Tamir interceptor firing at $50,000 or even a Patriot Missile at US$3-US$4 million, it is a no brainer on why advanced militaries such as the U.S are looking into it.

Laser systems help flip the cost-inefficient attrition of defending against low cost attack modes such as drones into a sustainable high volume defence force. Arguably the cost to train personal to operate and maintain such a defence is also a net gain towards saving dollars.

Currently, the Iron Beam system is projected to target smaller munitions such as drones to a distance of up to 10km. A far cry from the Tamir’s 150 square kilometer radius, however with the pace of technology evolving i find that this is not a big issue in terms of scalabality.

Countermeasures: Mother Nature, fog, rain and smoke are some uncontrollable ways that reduce laser system’s combat effectiveness. Theoretically, if an enemy wants to increase their chances of breaking through such defences, they could have an smoke artillery barrage around the surrounding systems and quickly lead up with a drone attack.

If a country were to be dependent on laser systems, their power stations and electrical grid will be key targets of attack as well, leading to more passive defences having to be placed around said infrastructure.

Drone Warfare

As seen in the Ukraine-Russian War, drone warfare is in its infancy. Intelligence gathering, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) once limited to the U.S UAV series is now widely available to even the smallest of paramilitaries.

Drones offer precision strikes along with swarm attacks whilst being cheap to produce and offering close to zero risk of danger to its operators.

Defending against such threats does not come cheap. With current tech, active defences such as interceptor missiles are expensive. Trying to counter drones with foot soldiers with shotguns (duck hunting experience preferred) is not feasible either.

Right now, it remains to be seen on who can perfect the drone swarm advantage and which country can produce the first cost effective defence and adopt to the doctrine the fastest.

Nation Defences

If I were advising a defence ministry, I would propose:
1. Build a counter-drone layered defence with lasers, jammers, and AI fire control
2. Train civilian drone reserves for local ISR
3. Stockpile cheap expendable drones for surge wartime use
4. Harden comms against jamming and GNSS denial
5. Integrate drones with existing artillery and air power for coordinated multi-domain operations
6. Start building swarm doctrines for both attack and defense
Usage of cheap defences such as camouflage netting for hiding key defence points, underground shelters for troops and counter drone tactics are the way i would minimise my losses in event of a war

Thanks for reading, Im still getting used to wordpress and formatting my blog, if anyone has any tips do not hesitate and reach out to me! i wont bite promise!

Disclaimer time!: I am not a professional, all my writings are my own personal opinion. Nothing I say should be taken as financial advice.
06/29/2025
The Costs of the Iron Dome & Going Forward

The Famous Iron Dome Firing.

The costly albeit effective Iron Dome system implemented in 2011 has protected Israel for the past 14 years, with each battery approximately costing between $50 to $80 million it is generally accepted that the strategy for its unfriendly neighbours over Israel is constant attrition.

With each cheap $500 Qassam Rocket or Shahed drone getting hurled at Israel getting met with a $50,000 Tamir missile, Israel is imposed with a cost efficiency dilemma. How is it being solved?

So far, U.S co-funding (over $5B since 2011), prioritising interception (to conserve missiles) and increased integration with the David’s Sling and arrow system has assisted in absorbing the costs associated to defend the population of almost 10 million.

Effectiveness In Conflicts

Key Tests in the Gaza Conflicts from (2012, 2014, 2021, 2023, 2024), May 2021 saw 4,000+ rockets fired, with a claimed ~90% interception rate. Given footages, it is clear that the system works however nothing is foolproof and some missiles still do make it through causing damage to civilian infrastructure and potential damage to key military installations however that it is strictly censored due its sensitivity.

That does not mean it is a futile effort, by having the system implemented the strategic value for Israel has been proven so far.

The prevention civilian casualties has been the first and foremost reason on the weapons system being created. Civilians are the backbone of any country’s economy, defence and offence. With Israel’s high conscription rate, every citizen is a asset to the country.

Every casualty as a result of the Iron Dome system failing is one loss towards compounded knowledge that the person may have had and perhaps decades of experience which for a country with a specialised workforce is an extreme price to pay for which Israel chose to prevent with the Iron Dome System.

Forward Strategy: Future Developments & Alternatives

Images from the “Iron Beam”

Israel is currently undergoing testing and possibly live testing on its Iron Beam system. With a supposed cost to fire of just US$3 per intercept, implementation of this weapons system slated to be in service in the later parts of this year. This could solve the cost efficiency dilemma and pour funds from the Tamir system towards other systems and R&D.

Laser guided systems are potentially a new way countries are able to protect against the new age of drone warfare. With the U.S Navy’s HELIOS (High Energy Laser with Integrated Optical Dazzler and Surveillance) being deployed and tested for use against drone targets, this is a topic in which I wish to delve in deeper in future blog posts.

Thank you for taking the time to read my first blog post! My blog may be not be as optimised for now but il get to the hang of it!

Disclaimer: I am not a professional, all my writings are my own personal opinion. Nothing I say should be taken as financial advice.

06/26/2025
Hello World!

Greetings, please find some insights on all things military, heavily inspired by Perun on youtube. Do check him out if you are interested in this kind of content too! https://www.youtube.com/@PerunAU

Generally I would like to delve into Military Technology and Doctrine. I also have a keen interest in Military Intelligence and might post more on that too.

Disclaimer: I am in no means a Military expert, I am an amateur with spare time on his hands and just wish to explore and learn more about how day to day decisions impact the world.

Welcome to Vellum Insights!

06/26/2025