Vellum Insights

Tag: ukraine

“Starvation as Strategy”: The Rise of Food Weaponization in Global Politics
I. Why Food is Becoming a Military Asset

For centuries, armies have “marched on their stomachs,” but in 2025, food isn’t just about sustaining troops — it’s about controlling entire populations and economies.

Modern states have learned that starvation can be as effective as bullets in breaking resistance.

Control the food supply, and you can:
- Force political concessions
- Collapse economies without firing a shot
- Secure long-term dependency
II. The Global Chokepoints of Food Supply

1. Russia’s Grain Leverage
- Russia and Ukraine together supply nearly 30% of global wheat exports
- During the Ukraine war, Russia blocked Black Sea grain shipments, causing price spikes in Africa and the Middle East
- Moscow used “grain diplomacy” to reward allies and punish critics
2. China’s Farmland Empire
- China has been buying or leasing farmland abroad — from Africa to South America
- Secures long-term food security while leaving local populations dependent on Chinese-controlled supply chains
3. U.S. and Allied Sanctions on Agricultural Inputs
- Western states can restrict fertilizer, seed, and agrochemical exports to pressure adversaries
- Targeting upstream inputs can cripple crop yields for multiple seasons
III. How Food is Weaponized in Modern Geopolitics

1. Export Bans and Embargoes
- Limiting critical grain, rice, or soybean exports to create shortages
- Example: India’s temporary wheat export ban in 2022 caused ripple effects across Asia
2. Fertilizer Warfare
- Restricting nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium exports can cause multi-year food production crises
- Russia and Belarus control large parts of the world’s potash supply
3. Control of Seed Genetics
- Countries can withhold high-yield GMO or hybrid seeds
- Owning the intellectual property for climate-resilient crops can give leverage over food-insecure nations
4. Supply Chain Disruption
- Naval blockades, port seizures, and targeted cyberattacks on agricultural logistics networks
IV. Strategic Risks of Food Weaponization
- Humanitarian Backlash: Mass famine can trigger international condemnation — but often too late
- Migration Crises: Food shortages fuel refugee flows, destabilizing entire regions
- Shadow Markets: Blockades and shortages create black-market economies that empower criminal networks
V. Strategic Recommendations for Nations
1. Food Stockpile Diplomacy
  - Build large emergency reserves to both feed your population and use as a diplomatic tool
2. Diversify Agricultural Imports
  - Reduce dependence on single suppliers for staple foods and fertilizers
3. Invest in Climate-Resilient Agriculture
  - Develop drought-resistant crops and vertical farming to reduce vulnerability
4. Agro-Intelligence Networks
  - Monitor global crop conditions, planting patterns, and shipping flows for early warning of shortages
VI. The Future: Agricultural Warfare 2035

Expect to see:
- Geo-Agro Alliances — food-exporting nations forming strategic blocs
- Seed Vault Militarization — securing genetic seed banks as national assets
- AI Crop Prediction Warfare — using AI to manipulate futures markets and destabilize economies
08/18/2025
Corporate Warriors: The New Face of Global Conflict
I. From Medieval Soldiers-for-Hire to Modern Corporate Armies

Mercenaries are as old as war itself — from the Swiss Guards of the Renaissance to the Foreign Legion.

But in 2025, Private Military Companies (PMCs) have evolved into corporate superpowers capable of influencing wars, toppling governments, and controlling resources — often without a single state soldier setting foot in combat.

These are militaries without borders:
- Answerable only to contracts, not constitutions
- Funded by states, corporations, and sometimes criminal syndicates
- Operating in the gray zone between legality and deniability
II. The Big Players in Modern Mercenary Warfare

1. Wagner Group (Russia)
- Active in Ukraine, Syria, Libya, and across Africa
- Controls mines and energy infrastructure in Central African Republic and Mali
- Operates as an arm of Russian foreign policy while officially “private”
2. Blackwater Successors (US)
- Blackwater → Xe Services → Academi → part of Constellis
- Specializes in high-end security, convoy protection, and training
- Still active in Middle East security contracts
3. STTEP International (South Africa)
- Founded by Eeben Barlow, ex-Executive Outcomes
- Known for rapid, aggressive counterinsurgency operations in Africa
- Played a key role in Nigeria’s 2015 campaign against Boko Haram
4. Chinese Private Security Firms
- Deployed along Belt & Road Initiative routes
- Protects Chinese-owned mines, ports, and railways in Africa and Asia
- Often staffed by ex-People’s Liberation Army personnel
III. Why Mercenaries Are So Attractive to States and Corporations
- Deniability: States can wage war without political backlash
- Cost-Effectiveness: No pensions, veterans’ benefits, or long-term commitments
- Flexibility: Can operate in areas where state militaries legally or politically cannot
- Revenue Generation: Some PMCs fund themselves by securing and exploiting resources
IV. The New Mercenary Business Models

1. Resource-Backed Operations
- PMCs secure oil fields, mines, or rare earth deposits
- Profits directly fund ongoing military operations
2. “Military-as-a-Service”
- Nations rent PMCs for training, counterterrorism, or entire combat campaigns
3. Hybrid State-PMC Campaigns
- Example: Russia’s use of Wagner alongside official military units in Ukraine
- Blends conventional warfare with covert, deniable operations
V. Strategic Risks of Mercenary Superpowers
- Unregulated Warfare: No Geneva Convention oversight
- Human Rights Abuses: Many operate in legal gray zones
- State Dependency: Fragile governments outsourcing entire defense structures
- Global Arms Black Markets: PMCs often recycle weapons between conflict zones
VI. Strategic Recommendations for States
1. Contract Oversight Mechanisms
  - Create binding international PMC registry and transparency standards
2. Counter-Mercenary Units
  - Specialized military and intelligence teams trained to deal with PMC tactics
3. National Defense Industrial Base
  - Reduce dependency by investing in local training and manufacturing
4. Cyber & Legal Offensive Tools
  - Sanctions, asset freezes, and information warfare against rogue PMCs
VII. The Future: Mercenary States?

By 2035, it’s possible we’ll see:
- Corporations with standing armies rivaling national forces
- PMCs managing entire territories as quasi-feudal domains
- A “Mercenary UN” — coalitions of PMCs bidding for peacekeeping contracts
The line between state soldier and corporate warrior is disappearing — and in the wars of the future, the flag you fight under might be a logo.
08/16/2025
France Boosts Defense Spending: Key Priorities for 2025
KNDS Group arms expo.

Hello everyone, a buying trend is starting in Europe. Many countries are spending more into defence and arms in response to the Russian-Ukraine war.

France has placed a record defence budget of €47.2 billion for 2025 alone. With its goals to exceed 2% of its GDP to align with NATO commitments France has spending priorities which I will touch on.

🇫🇷 Spending Priorities
1. Modernize the nuclear deterrent (air and submarine-based)
2. Replenish munitions & stocks (lacking after Ukraine lessons)
3. Upgrade armoured forces (Scorpion program)
4. Expand drone, cyber, and space capabilities
5. Strengthen overseas deployments (esp. in the Indo-Pacific)
France’s “Force de frappe ” (‘Strike Force’)remains the backbone of national sovereignty.
- Maintaining an independent nuclear deterrent is non-negotiable in French 🇫🇷 grand strategy.
- Spending priorities include:
  - Upgrading M51 SLBM missiles on its four Triomphant-class SSBNs (submarines)
  - Modernizing the ASMPA-R nuclear air-launched missile carried by Rafales
  - Sustaining the dedicated infrastructure at the Île Longue nuclear submarine base
  - Research on next-generation nuclear warheads
Cold War Era kit replacement

France is replacing Cold War–era kit with next-generation assets:

🦂 SCORPION Program (Army)
- Replaces old VAB armored vehicles with Griffon, Jaguar, Serval
- Integrated with SICS (Scorpion combat info system) for networked warfare
- Boosts mobility, survivability, and sensor-to-shooter speed
MBTs & Artillery
- Refurbishing Leclerc tanks
- Investing in the next-generation MGCS tank with Germany (though facing delays)
- New Caesar 6×6 and 8×8 self-propelled artillery upgrades
Precision Munitions
- Stocks of AASM Hammer bombs
- Meteor air-to-air missiles
- MMP (medium-range anti-tank missile)
- Large munitions stockpiles after seeing Ukraine’s burn rates
🌍 Overseas Posture & Infrastructure

France has permanent forces in:
- French Polynesia
- New Caledonia
- Djibouti
- French Guiana
- UAE (Abu Dhabi airbase)
Spending priorities include:
1. Modernising these outposts
2. Prepositioned stocks
3. Hardened airfields
4. Satellite comms for global force projection
→ This is part of France’s ambition to be a global (not just European) military power.

🏛️ Strategic Summary

France’s spending priorities reflect:

A) A nuclear-armed sovereign deterrent (cannot rely on the U.S. alone)
B) High-intensity peer conflict preparedness (no more purely counterinsurgency kit)
C) Expeditionary reach (Indo-Pacific, Africa)
D) Resilience (stockpiles, industrial base)
E) Technology edge (cyber, drones, precision weapons, AI)
07/14/2025
Navigating Germany’s Ammunition Crisis and Defense Goals

A ceremony involving the Bundeswehr

Germany is currently facing issues in force generation. With a goal of having 203,000 active troops by 2031, it is possible that they achieve that target.

Current active troops as of 31st March 2025 of 182,000 troops means that they have to draw upon another 21,000 troops in a span of 6 years.

Taking into consideration troops that resign or retire, incentives to recruit more from the younger population are being observed.

Defence Spending Skyrockets

Panzerhaubitze 2000 firing

Germany has announced a €100 billion fund to raise its defence spending to 2% of its GDP. It raises the question on whether the country is able to solve its own internal problems.

Germany currently faces procurement paralysis, industrial underinvestment and energy challenges. Ammo such as high-explosive artillery shells are in short supply due to the Ukraine war.

I will put more focus on its ammunition shortfall as it sums up all the issues that Germany faces.

The country had supplied Ukraine with tons of ammo resulting in a reserve of only 20,00 shells. With a plan to implement €21.4 billion into its ammo reserves by 2031, Germany aims to solve its weak supply chains.

Ukraine Artillery Pieces

Germany imports most of its ammo from China which is unreliable in event of a war breaking out. Shipping times will cause delays and in a time where speed is what decides who wins, it is important to close up the gap.

Focus on investing in its domestic production is underway. With companies like Rheinmetall, expanding its factories. Facing rare earth and explosive components shortages, expanding is difficult.

Gen-Z refusing to fight?

Germany has a birth rate issue. With 1.35 children per woman in 2023, not many are willing to pick up a weapon. Competition is fierce with civilian labor markets.

There is a saying from WW2, “Every Soldier requires 7 in logistics”. Having a necessary workforce to support 203,000 troops will be a challenge.

Germany also faces a barracks capacity problem. Having a bunch of soldiers is useless if there is no place for them to sleep.

I would not be surprised if Germany were to bring back conscription to boost numbers with enough support.

To sum up the potential,

If Germany can restructure it has :
1. a solid industrial base,
2. vast financial resources,
3. strong alliances,
— and can recover its defence strength within 5–7 years, especially in combined NATO frameworks.

Time will tell if Germany can build the necessary support systems to field an active army of 203,000 troops in these uncertain times.

Blog Talk

Hi guys, this is my fourth blog post since starting, I am getting the hang of it, will improve more as i pump out the content. Il probably delve into military intelligence next or whatever comes up in these turbulent times.

If anyone wants to reach out to connect feel free to contact me 🙂

Disclaimer Time!: I am not a professional, all my writings are my own personal opinion. Nothing I say should be taken as financial advice.

06/30/2025
How Drones Are Revolutionizing Combat Strategies
With reference to my previous blog on the Iron Dome system, I would like to delve into the ever-changing landscape of warfare with the introduction of laser systems, drones and the impact of them into defence systems infrastructure.

Laser Systems – Cost effective Defences?

The main advantage of laser systems over traditional missile defence systems are mainly in cost per firing. Having a low cost per firing at US$2 – US$10 versus a Tamir interceptor firing at $50,000 or even a Patriot Missile at US$3-US$4 million, it is a no brainer on why advanced militaries such as the U.S are looking into it.

Laser systems help flip the cost-inefficient attrition of defending against low cost attack modes such as drones into a sustainable high volume defence force. Arguably the cost to train personal to operate and maintain such a defence is also a net gain towards saving dollars.

Currently, the Iron Beam system is projected to target smaller munitions such as drones to a distance of up to 10km. A far cry from the Tamir’s 150 square kilometer radius, however with the pace of technology evolving i find that this is not a big issue in terms of scalabality.

Countermeasures: Mother Nature, fog, rain and smoke are some uncontrollable ways that reduce laser system’s combat effectiveness. Theoretically, if an enemy wants to increase their chances of breaking through such defences, they could have an smoke artillery barrage around the surrounding systems and quickly lead up with a drone attack.

If a country were to be dependent on laser systems, their power stations and electrical grid will be key targets of attack as well, leading to more passive defences having to be placed around said infrastructure.

Drone Warfare

As seen in the Ukraine-Russian War, drone warfare is in its infancy. Intelligence gathering, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) once limited to the U.S UAV series is now widely available to even the smallest of paramilitaries.

Drones offer precision strikes along with swarm attacks whilst being cheap to produce and offering close to zero risk of danger to its operators.

Defending against such threats does not come cheap. With current tech, active defences such as interceptor missiles are expensive. Trying to counter drones with foot soldiers with shotguns (duck hunting experience preferred) is not feasible either.

Right now, it remains to be seen on who can perfect the drone swarm advantage and which country can produce the first cost effective defence and adopt to the doctrine the fastest.

Nation Defences

If I were advising a defence ministry, I would propose:
1. Build a counter-drone layered defence with lasers, jammers, and AI fire control
2. Train civilian drone reserves for local ISR
3. Stockpile cheap expendable drones for surge wartime use
4. Harden comms against jamming and GNSS denial
5. Integrate drones with existing artillery and air power for coordinated multi-domain operations
6. Start building swarm doctrines for both attack and defense
Usage of cheap defences such as camouflage netting for hiding key defence points, underground shelters for troops and counter drone tactics are the way i would minimise my losses in event of a war

Thanks for reading, Im still getting used to wordpress and formatting my blog, if anyone has any tips do not hesitate and reach out to me! i wont bite promise!

Disclaimer time!: I am not a professional, all my writings are my own personal opinion. Nothing I say should be taken as financial advice.
06/29/2025