Vellum Insights

Tag: Why Afghanistan Fell

  • The Fall of Bagram: How Losing One Base Doomed a Country

    The Fall of Bagram: How Losing One Base Doomed a Country

    How one decision changed the end of the Afghanistan War — and shaped America’s exit forever.

    🔎 Introduction: The Base That Held a War Together

    For almost 20 years, Bagram Air Base was the center of America’s mission in Afghanistan. It was more than a runway. It was a symbol of strength, a shield for Afghan forces, a staging point for U.S. troops, and the heart of intelligence, drones, transport, and medical support.

    But in July 2021, the United States left Bagram overnight.
    No ceremony.
    No hand-off.
    No public warning.

    Within weeks, the Afghan government collapsed. The Taliban swept across the country. Kabul fell. And the world watched chaos unfold at the Hamid Karzai International Airport—a place never designed for mass evacuation.

    Many experts now say:

    “Losing Bagram doomed Afghanistan.”

    This article explains why.

    1. What Bagram Really Was: The Brain, Heart, and Lungs of a War

    To understand the collapse, we must first understand Bagram’s role. It wasn’t just a military base. It was the glue that held the Afghan war effort together.

    1.1 A Strategic Fortress

    Bagram had:

    • Two massive runways
    • Space for tens of thousands of troops
    • Three rings of defenses
    • Advanced radar and air-defense systems
    • A full field hospital
    • The main drone command center

    It was the only base in the country capable of:

    • Sustained heavy airlift
    • 24/7 drone missions
    • Large-scale logistics operations
    • Supporting NATO coalition traffic

    1.2 Air Power: The Afghan Army’s Life Support

    The Afghan National Army (ANA) heavily depended on U.S. airpower for:

    • Air strikes
    • Medical evacuations
    • Supply drops
    • Transport of reinforcements
    • Surveillance and intelligence

    Losing Bagram meant losing:

    • 90% of U.S. airstrike capability
    • All heavy logistics capacity
    • Command-and-control systems for Afghan pilots

    This left Afghan troops blind, isolated, and cut off.

    SIGAR (Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction) later wrote:

    “Once U.S. air support ended, the Afghan Army’s ability to fight collapsed almost instantly.”
    — SIGAR, Why the Afghan Security Forces Collapsed, 2023

    2. Why Bagram Was Abandoned: The Doha Trap

    To understand why Bagram was closed, we must look at the Doha Agreement (February 2020).
    This was the U.S.–Taliban deal under which:

    • The U.S. promised to leave Afghanistan
    • The Taliban promised not to attack withdrawing forces
    • The Afghan government was excluded from negotiations
    • Taliban leaders gained international legitimacy

    But the biggest problem was hidden in the fine print:

    The U.S. agreed to reduce all forces to a level too small to hold major bases.

    By early 2021:

    • Only 2,500 U.S. troops remained
    • Just enough to hold one base — not Bagram

    The Biden administration reviewed the agreement but concluded the U.S. was trapped:

    “Staying meant breaking the deal and restarting the war. Leaving meant accepting the risks.”
    — U.S. National Security Review Summary, 2021

    The Pentagon recommended keeping Bagram.
    The White House chose full withdrawal.

    That meant:

    • Bagram had to be abandoned
    • A single airport (Kabul International) had to handle the evacuation
    • Afghan forces were left without air support
    • Taliban forces gained momentum across the country

    3. The Night Bagram Went Dark: A Silent Exit

    On July 1, 2021, U.S. troops shut off the electricity, packed their vehicles, and left Bagram in the middle of the night without informing the Afghan commander.

    Afghan General Mir Asadullah Kohistani later said:

    “We woke up and found they were gone. The Americans left without saying goodbye.”

    The base was instantly looted by local civilians.
    The Afghan Army took over, but they didn’t have:

    • Enough troops
    • Enough pilots
    • Enough maintenance crews
    • Any ability to defend the perimeter

    Bagram was now:

    • Too big to hold
    • Too complex to operate
    • Too costly to maintain

    Within 40 days, it fell to the Taliban without a fight.

    4. How Losing Bagram Collapsed the Afghan State

    4.1 No Air Support = No Army

    The Afghan military was built around one idea:

    American airpower will stop large Taliban attacks.

    But once Bagram fell:

    • Afghan helicopters ran out of spare parts
    • Drones stopped flying
    • Airstrikes stopped
    • Troops in remote bases were isolated
    • Desertions skyrocketed

    SIGAR wrote:

    “Removing U.S. advisers and air support crippled Afghan forces more than any Taliban offensive.”
    — SIGAR, 2023

    4.2 The Taliban’s Blitzkrieg

    With Bagram gone, the Taliban launched a lightning campaign:

    • Attack isolated bases
    • Cut off supply lines
    • Force local commanders to surrender
    • Capture equipment
    • Move rapidly from city to city

    By late July:

    • 200+ district centers fell
    • Taliban captured U.S.-supplied vehicles
    • Entire brigades surrendered without firing a shot

    It was a domino effect.

    4.3 Psychological Collapse

    Bagram’s fall signaled:

    • The U.S. is truly leaving
    • There will be no rescue
    • No more airstrikes
    • No logistics
    • No backup

    Afghan troops lost faith.
    Local warlords switched sides.
    Provincial governors negotiated surrender deals.

    Once morale broke, the collapse was unstoppable.

    5. Kabul Without Bagram: A Deadly Funnel

    When the Taliban closed in on Kabul, the U.S. needed an evacuation point.
    But there was a huge problem:

    Bagram was gone.

    The only option was:

    • A small civilian airport
    • In the middle of the city
    • With no secure perimeter
    • Surrounded by Taliban fighters

    This led to:

    • Chaotic crowds
    • A deadly ISIS-K suicide bombing
    • Billions in abandoned equipment
    • Desperate evacuations on cargo planes

    The Pentagon later admitted:

    “Without Bagram, we had limited options for a safe and orderly evacuation.”
    — U.S. Defense Department After-Action Review, 2022

    6. How the Taliban Used Bagram After the Capture

    Once the Taliban took Bagram:

    • They freed thousands of prisoners, including ISIS-K fighters
    • They seized helicopters, armored vehicles, weapons, and ammunition
    • They gained access to advanced equipment left behind
    • They used the base as their new military HQ

    One decision had changed the balance of power.

    7. The Strategic Lessons: What Bagram Teaches the World

    Lesson 1: Airpower keeps weak states alive

    Without U.S. planes, the Afghan Army was not a 300,000-man force.
    It was a patchwork of disconnected outposts.

    Lesson 2: Never give up your strongest military base first

    Bagram was:

    • Defensible
    • Equipped
    • Spacious
    • Internationally connected

    Giving it up made everything worse.

    Lesson 3: Diplomacy can trap militaries

    The Doha Agreement removed the U.S.’s freedom to choose:

    • timelines
    • troop levels
    • base structure
    • withdrawal positioning

    It was a military retreat shaped by political pressure.

    Lesson 4: Morale collapses before armies do

    Afghanistan did not fall militarily.
    It fell psychologically.

    Lesson 5: Evacuations require planning years ahead

    Kabul airport was doomed to fail the moment Bagram closed.

    Conclusion: How One Base Decided the Fate of a Nation

    The fall of Afghanistan was not caused by:

    • Lack of bravery
    • Poor training
    • Weak soldiers
    • Taliban strength

    It was caused by structural collapse.

    Bagram was the backbone.
    Once it was gone, the Afghan military lost:

    • mobility
    • coordination
    • firepower
    • intelligence
    • morale

    In the end, the fall of Bagram was not one event.

    It was the moment the war became unwinnable.

    The story of Bagram is a lesson for all future conflicts:

    Never walk away from the anchor that holds everything together.

    Sources

    • SIGAR (Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction), Why the Afghan Security Forces Collapsed, 2023.
    • Department of Defense, Afghanistan After-Action Review, 2022.
    • Graeme Herd, The Causes and Consequences of Strategic Failure in Afghanistan, Marshall Center, 2021.
    • Al Jazeera, “US auditor: Washington, Ghani to blame for Afghanistan’s fall,” 2022.
    • The National, “Afghan Army collapse was years in the making,” 2021.
  • Why Afghanistan Fell in 11 Days: The Political and Civilian Collapse

    Why Afghanistan Fell in 11 Days: The Political and Civilian Collapse

    How a Two-Decade War Ended Suddenly — and Why Everyone Was Shocked

    Introduction: A Collapse Nobody Expected

    In August 2021, Afghanistan fell faster than almost anyone believed possible. On August 15, Taliban fighters entered Kabul, and the Afghan government crumbled. President Ashraf Ghani fled. Two decades of U.S. involvement seemed to vanish in a matter of days. HISTORY+2CBS News+2

    Many people call it “11 days” — the final span when the Taliban swept through province after province, and Afghanistan’s future spun out of control.

    But the fall was no accident. It was the result of deep political failures, decades of dependency, and a peace deal that weakened the very state the U.S. built.

    This is the story of how power shifted, why ordinary Afghans felt betrayed, and what made the country “fall in 11 days.”

    1. The U.S.-Taliban Deal: A Fatal Promise

    The collapse began before the U.S. even left.

    In February 2020, the United States signed the Doha Agreement with the Taliban. Foreign Affairs The deal promised a full U.S. troop withdrawal in exchange for Taliban guarantees not to attack U.S. forces — but it didn’t include a strong role for the Afghan government. Foreign Affairs

    That weakened the Afghan state. The Taliban even demanded the release of 5,000 prisoners, many of whom became key leaders again. Foreign Affairs

    According to strategic analysts, this deal “shifted the balance of power toward the Taliban” and “created the conditions for the state’s collapse.” Foreign Affairs

    2. Leadership and Corruption: A Fragile Government

    The Afghan government was deeply flawed.

    • Centralized Power: President Ashraf Ghani ran a very top-down government. Foreign Affairs
    • Political Rivalries: Other leaders, like Abdullah Abdullah, challenged Ghani’s rule and even held a parallel inauguration. Foreign Affairs
    • Corruption: Billions of dollars poured into Afghanistan over 20 years — but much of it was siphoned off. SIGAR (the U.S. watchdog) found deep corruption in the Afghan security forces. CBS News+2New English Review+2

    According to a U.S. oversight report, part of the collapse was caused by the Afghan government’s failure to accept that the U.S. would actually leave, leaving them unprepared. Sigar

    Simply put: when the world turned away, the foundation of Afghan governance was too weak to stand on its own.

    3. The Withdrawal Signal: Collapse of Will to Fight

    When the U.S. announced a full troop withdrawal under President Joe Biden, the message was clear — the international backstop was gone. CNBC+1

    That signal spread quickly: many Afghan soldiers felt demoralized, believing that without U.S. support, they would not survive. CNBC

    An expert quoted in a report said the fast speed of collapse was “a reflection of a collapse in will to fight.” CNBC

    With their allies gone, Afghan forces melted away. Provincial capitals fell with little resistance — sometimes even without a shot fired.

    4. Poor Planning and Sudden Exit

    The way the U.S. left contributed to the chaos.

    • Abrupt Bases Closure: The U.S. quietly abandoned Bagram Air Base — a major hub — without coordinating with Afghan allies. The Guardian
    • Evacuation Missteps: Even as Taliban fighters approached Kabul, U.S. leadership was criticized by generals for not planning a proper evacuation. AP News
    • Broken Institutions: The Afghan National Security Forces relied heavily on U.S. contractors for maintenance, air support, and logistics. When these contractors left, many Afghan units failed to operate. The American Conservative+2Sigar+2

    The collapse was not sudden magic — it was a policy error playing out in real time.

    5. Civilian Chaos and the Human Toll

    Millions of ordinary Afghans paid the price for the political failures.

    As Taliban forces advanced, Afghan civilians ran for their lives. Many raced to Kabul airport, trying to board evacuation flights. Journal of Democracy+1

    When Ghani fled, it shattered any remaining hope in the government. Kabul fell without a fight. Journal of Democracy

    Women and girls were especially fearful. The Taliban’s return raised urgent questions about rights, education, and safety under new rule. 8am

    People who had worked with the U.S. — translators, civil society leaders — feared retribution. Many fled in panic or stayed, hoping to be safe.

    6. Strategic Failure or Inevitable Exit?

    Why did the collapse happen so fast? Experts point to multiple reasons:

    • Strategic Error: According to the George C. Marshall Center, the mission’s goals became too broad. Building a stable democracy proved more difficult than anticipated. marshallcenter.org
    • Legitimacy Crisis: According to the Journal of Democracy, the Afghan republic struggled to win true legitimacy. Journal of Democracy
    • Long-Term Weakness: Years of dependency on Western money and support created a fragile system. New English Review

    Critics argue that the U.S. never built a self-reliant Afghan nation. Instead, it built a dependent state that collapsed when its backers left.

    7. Aftermath: What the Collapse Means for the Future

    When Kabul fell:

    • The Taliban claimed victory, declaring the end of the Islamic Republic. Journal of Democracy
    • Thousands of Afghans tried to get on evacuation flights at the airport — a chaotic and tragic scene. HISTORY
    • Internationally, the U.S. withdrawal sparked fierce debate. Some said it was overdue; others called it a policy failure. TIME

    The legacy of those 11 days will be long:

    • For Afghans, it’s a story of betrayal, grief, and uncertainty.
    • For the U.S., it’s a reminder that nation-building is hard — and sometimes fragile.
    • For the world, it’s a warning: military exit without political backing can lead to chaos.

    Conclusion: A War That Ended Without Being Won

    Afghanistan’s fall in August 2021 was more than a military defeat — it was a political collapse.

    The Doha deal. Fragile governance. Deep-rooted corruption. A rapid exit. A terrified civilian population.

    All of these pieces came together in a perfect storm.

    The 11 days didn’t just end a war — they redefined what happened afterward.
    And whether the world remembers this as a failure or an inevitable outcome, the human cost is real, and the lessons are urgent.

    Citations

    • Foreign Affairs, “Why Afghanistan Fell.” Foreign Affairs
    • Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), Report on Collapse. Sigar
    • George C. Marshall Center, “Strategic Failure in Afghanistan.” marshallcenter.org
    • Al Jazeera, “US Withdrawal Prompted Collapse of Afghan Army.” Al Jazeera
    • CNBC, “How Afghanistan Fell to the Taliban So Quickly.” CNBC
    • Journal of Democracy, “The Collapse of Afghanistan.” Journal of Democracy
    • New English Review, “11 Days That Shook the World.” New English Review
    • History.com, “Kabul Falls to the Taliban After U.S. Withdrawal.” HISTORY