Case Study: “From Fishing Boats to Fortresses: How China is Winning Without Firing a Shot”

The South China Sea (SCS) is one of the world’s most contested maritime regions, containing over $3.5 trillion in annual trade, vast fisheries, and potentially rich oil and gas reserves.

Instead of risking direct war, China has chosen a grey-zone strategy to expand its control incrementally.

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The Strategy in Action

1. Island-Building Blitz
   • China dredges sand to turn submerged reefs into artificial islands.
   • Example: Fiery Cross Reef — now equipped with runways, radar systems, and missile batteries.
   • These “civilian” islands double as forward operating military bases.
2. Maritime Militia
   • Civilian-looking fishing fleets act as intelligence gatherers and physical blockers against rival vessels.
   • This provides deniability — they aren’t “naval” forces, so military retaliation becomes diplomatically risky.
3. Coast Guard as Grey-Hull Enforcers
   • Instead of sending warships (which would escalate), China uses large, heavily armed coast guard ships to shadow, bump, or water-cannon foreign vessels.
4. Legal Warfare (“Lawfare”)
   • Beijing promotes its own “Nine-Dash Line” as historic evidence of ownership.
   • Rejects the 2016 Hague Tribunal ruling against its claims — reframing international law in its own favor.
5. Economic Entanglement
   • ASEAN states dependent on China’s trade face diplomatic hesitation to challenge its actions, effectively muting collective resistance.

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Why This Works

• Low-Intensity, High-Frequency: Small, constant actions are harder to respond to than a single invasion.
• Plausible Deniability: Fishing boats, coast guard, and “research vessels” blur military intent.
• Time as a Weapon: The longer artificial islands exist without being challenged, the more they become a “new normal.”

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Impact on Regional Powers

• Philippines – Increasing confrontations near Second Thomas Shoal.
• Vietnam – Harassment of oil exploration efforts within its EEZ.
• Malaysia & Indonesia – Chinese survey vessels operating in contested waters.

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Counter-Strategies for Regional States

1. Unified Maritime Domain Awareness
   • Shared satellite imagery and AIS (Automatic Identification System) tracking across ASEAN.
2. Legal Coalition Pressure
   • Jointly bringing multiple cases to international courts to raise diplomatic cost.
3. Mini-Lateral Defense Pacts
   • Small-group alliances like the Philippines-Japan-US trilateral for rapid naval drills.
4. Civilian Resistance at Sea
   • Employing national fishing fleets as counter-militias to shadow Chinese vessels.